Frost dates for ZIP 78564 (Lopeño, TX)
Average last spring and first fall frost dates with 10%, 50% and 90% odds, from NOAA's 1991–2020 climate normals for the nearest weather station, Falcon Dam, TX (8 miles away).
Freezes are uncommon here
NOAA's normals for this station show a 32°F night in about 55% of years (about 2 freezing night(s) a year on average). The dates below describe freeze timing for the station's record; in many years there may be no 32°F freeze at all.
- Average last spring frostJan 950% chance of a 32°F freeze after this date
- Average first fall frostJan 1 (next year)50% chance of a 32°F freeze by this date
- Growing season (frost-free)363 daysmedian, 32°F threshold
- USDA hardiness zone9b25 to 30°F avg. coldest night
Last spring frost odds
| Chance of a 32°F freeze after this date | Date |
|---|---|
| 90% (early: most years still freeze after this) | Dec 17 (prior Dec) |
| 50% (the "average" last frost) | Jan 9 |
| 10% (safe-side: only 1 year in 10 freezes later) | Feb 21 |
Most gardeners plant frost-tender crops (tomatoes, peppers, basil) after the 50% date, and closer to the 10% date for less risk.
First fall frost odds
| Chance the first 32°F freeze has happened by this date | Date |
|---|---|
| 10% (early: 1 year in 10 freezes this soon) | Dec 8 |
| 50% (the "average" first frost) | Jan 1 (next year) |
| 90% (late: most years have frozen by now) | Feb 4 (next year) |
Light frost, freeze and hard freeze
| Threshold | Last spring (50%) | First fall (50%) |
|---|---|---|
| 36°F (light frost possible on clear, calm nights) | Jan 30 | Dec 18 |
| 32°F (freeze) | Jan 9 | Jan 1 (next year) |
| 28°F (hard freeze) | Jan 3 | Jan 2 (next year) |
n/a means NOAA did not publish a date at that threshold for this station (usually because it rarely gets that cold).
This week in Lopeño
Soil temperature now
2-inch depth
78°F 55°F or warmer
24-hour average · latest 82°F, as of Oct 17, 7:00 PM CDT
Estimate Not a measurement at this ZIP: distance-weighted average of Rancho Las Comitas (32 mi).
4-inch depth
80°F 55°F or warmer
24-hour average · latest 83°F, as of Oct 17, 7:00 PM CDT
Estimate Not a measurement at this ZIP: distance-weighted average of Rancho Las Comitas (32 mi).
Fall: Texas A&M AgriLife times fall pre-emergent (for winter weeds such as annual bluegrass) to soil cooling to about 70°F for several days. The 50–55°F band is the spring trigger. Always read and follow the product label.
7-day forecast and frost risk
No frost in the 7-day forecast.
| Period | High | Low | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tonight | 53° | Partly Cloudy | |
| Sunday | 75° | 63° | Mostly Sunny |
| Monday | 82° | 69° | Partly Sunny |
| Tuesday | 88° | 72° | Mostly Sunny |
| Wednesday | 89° | 71° | Mostly Sunny then Chance Rain Showers |
| Thursday | 90° | 70° | Sunny |
| Friday | 91° | 73° | Sunny |
National Weather Service forecast, issued Oct 17, 8:28 PM CDT. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights. Full NWS forecast.
Free frost alerts for 78564
An email when the National Weather Service forecasts a freeze for this ZIP, plus the spring soil-temperature heads-up. At most a few a month.
Alerts open soon. This form is a preview and doesn't send anything yet.
Where these numbers come from
Station: Falcon Dam, TX (NOAA GHCN-Daily ID USC00413060), elevation 320 ft, 7.8 miles from the ZIP's center point. NOAA completeness flag: S (standard, 24+ years).
Nearby stations
| Station | Distance | Last frost (50%) | First frost (50%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zapata 1 S, TX | 16 mi | Jan 19 | Dec 22 |
| Rio Grande City, TX | 28 mi | Jan 31 | Dec 17 |
| Hebbronville, TX | 53 mi | Feb 4 | Dec 12 |
The average last-frost dates of these stations span 26 days, a rough guide to local variation. See data sources & methods.
Questions
When is the last frost in 78564?
The average (50% chance) last spring freeze of 32°F for ZIP 78564 is January 9. For a safer planting date, use February 21, when only 1 year in 10 still sees a later freeze.
When is the first frost in 78564?
The average first fall freeze is January 1 (next year). In 1 year in 10 it comes by December 8.
What hardiness zone is 78564?
ZIP 78564 is in USDA zone 9b (25 to 30°F average coldest winter night), per the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map ZIP listing.